Noni Madueke to Arsenal - does it make any sense?

Arsenal’s £50 million bid for Noni Madueke has raised eyebrows within their fanbase and beyond. Is he worth the fee, and what does this mean for the club’s broader transfer priorities under financial regulations?

Reports suggest that Arsenal have lodged a £50 million bid to land Chelsea's Madueke. The winger has showed glimpses of talent since his move to London in 2023, but is still yet to fully solidify himself as part of the core setup at Stamford Bridge. With Mikel Arteta's side rumoured to be chasing other marquee signings like Viktor Gyökeres, Rodrygo, and Eberechi Eze this summer, this bid raises an important question - is Madueke worth the fee, and what does it cost Arsenal elsewhere?

The obvious upside of bringing the 23-year-old to The Emirates is that star man Bukayo Saka will (finally) have an adequate rotation option going into next season. Arsenal's decision to loan out both Marquinhos and Reiss Nelson last summer meant that the team were only ever a Saka injury away from being in big trouble - and disaster struck in December when a torn hamstring put the winger out of action for over three months. In that time, The Gunners had to rely on the likes of Gabriel Martinelli and 17-year-old Ethan Nwaneri playing out of position to fill the void on their right flank. With the stakes at an all time high this season, the North London can ill-afford themselves to find themselves in a similar position again, and so it's no surprise that they're seeking some backup in the right winger spot.

But what does Madueke offer in particular when compared with Saka?

Source: FBRef

The immediately clear drop off lies in the output of the two wingers. Saka is elite when it comes to goalscoring, providing assists, and producing shot-creating actions, and conversely, Madueke is fairly poor in all of those metrics. The Chelsea winger also generates a low frequency of crosses, whereas Saka is one of the best crossers in the Premier League.

What Madueke does offer, though, is great transitional play (with his carries) and high involvement in the box (shots, xG and touches). In short, Arsenal need all of those things. The Gunners ranked only 6th in the league for total carrying distance last season, and more worryingly, they ranked 7th for xG, 5th for shots per 90, and lagged behind both Liverpool and Manchester City when it came to touches in the opposition penalty area. The 23-year-old wide man can provide a solution in terms of closing these gaps.

However, £50 million is a lot of money, especially for a club that has been tipped to bring in a large number of players this summer. At the time of writing, Madueke's market value is under £35 million, per Transfermarkt, and so it's no wonder that Arsenal fans are questioning the decision to open negotiations with an offer that is over £15 million greater than market value. Fortunately, from an analytical perspective, we have two reference points of right wingers switching to new Premier League clubs for a little over £50 million in the last few days alone in Anthony Elanga and Mohammed Kudus. Let's see how Madueke's numbers fare against these players:

Source: FBRef

Based on these figures, you'd be fair in assuming that Madueke for £50 million is better value for money than Kudus for £55 million. Elanga is clearly a more creative player, and his high assist tally backs that up, but Madueke seems to be more dangerous in the box and a better carrier, and so the two are quite even overall, and Madueke being worth a similar price tag makes sense. Here's the problem, though, Elanga and Kudus have likely been brought to be used as regular starters for their new clubs - the same can't be said for Madueke. That is, unless Arteta plans on deploying him as a left winger instead, which is an issue in itself. However, if recent reports are to be believed, then this signing is separate from Arsenal's hunt for a left winger. The question that many Arsenal fans are asking, though, is how is that financially possible? Let's try and break it down.

Arsenal's rumoured targets for this summer, along with their estimated* price tags, are as follows:

• Kepa Arrizabalaga - £5 million

• Martín Zubimendi - £60 million

• Christian Nørgaard - £10 million

• Noni Madueke - £50 million*

• Viktor Gyökeres - £60 million*

• Cristhian Mosquera - £20 million*

• Rodrygo - £77 million*

• Eberechi Eze - £68 million (release clause)*

All in all, that's a £350 million summer - £132 million more than Arsenal have ever spent in a lone window. It's certainly a big ask, but it is doable. Let's first talk about money that Arsenal will be freeing up from departures.

Amortised fees = Transfer fee / Contract length

From a savings standpoint, Arsenal have will have increased their available funds to spend on amortised transfers and new salaries by around £42 million through players who have already left the club.

Furthermore, if players expected to leave The Emirates this summer are sold for their market value on Transfermarkt, then Arsenal will generate around £75 million, which translates to £51 million in cash to ensure that they keep within PSR. This potential cash, alongside the £42 million set aside from departing players, equates to potential savings of £93 million for the year.

In terms of what Arsenal's potential targets will cost them, the figures in the above table are ESTIMATES based on reported transfer fees and adding ~20% to players' current wages. From these numbers, it can be deduced that Arsenal's outgoings will increase by £104 million per year after this summer. This is offset by the £93 million in savings (from amortised transfer fees, wages, and player sales), which leads to an overall £11 million loss for the year - well within PSR guidelines. With Arsenal's record revenues last season, they will likely have the necessary cash to spend on these players, especially with the right payment structures using instalments.

Again, these numbers are all estimates, and a very surface level breakdown, but make a contribution to the overall point that with some intelligent sales, Arsenal can afford to bring in a lot of players before the window shuts in September.

Arteta's interest in Madueke does make sense due to his carrying ability, shot output, and the fact that Saka needs some support - but the fee is significant. Whilst The Gunners can likely afford him, it does seem far-fetched to assume that they will spend nearly £150 million more on transfers this season than they ever have before in order to bring in the winger alongside all of their other transfer targets.

Ultimately, bidding £50 million for a backup option before getting a starting striker and left winger over the line is a questionable way of doing things, but we can only really judge this deal in the context of the wider window after deadline day depending on whether or not Arsenal can make other signings that they clearly need.